Mustapha From Beirut Spring shared with me a really important piece by Synaps on Lebanon’s economy and where the country is headed to. It’s a bit long but an eye opener and a must-read if you ask me.
The article tackles everything from debt management, the role of the BDL and its governor Riad Salameh, Circular 331 and starts up, the internet situation, the banking sector, real estate, the role of expats, regional politics and its effect on the economy and almost every aspect of the Lebanese economy.
The author, Rosalie Berthier, argues that this “much flaunted “resilience” has become part of the problem, allowing for all sorts of anomalies to stack up, relentlessly bringing the system closer to breaking point”, and that “Lebanon has developed core vulnerabilities that call not for more magical thinking and prestidigitation, but for a hard-nosed appraisal of the flawed economic system Lebanese have gotten themselves locked into, and whose current fragility is on the verge of compromising what is left of the country’s social compact”.
We’ve been living in crisis for years now yet things are not going to work out on their own forever. Someone needs to manage this economic crisis properly and the ruling class is definitely not helping. Quoting the author again, “holding on to the belief that more financial voodoo will see Lebanon through its current economic predicament is irresponsible. Reality is slowly but surely catching up with the illusionism”. Irresponsible is the name of the game when it comes to Lebanese politicians and no one (except the Zaiim), is prepared to handle a severe crisis when it hits.
Read [the whole article]. It’s a must.